Flooding from rising sea levels could cost trillions of pounds per year by the end of the century, a study has found.
Scientists calculated the financial impact of sea damage worldwide if global temperatures are not held below 2C above pre-industrial levels.
The result was a staggering 14 trillion US dollars (£10.6 trillion) annually by the year 2100.
Upper middle-income countries such as China would suffer the greatest flood burden, said the researchers. The highest income countries would be hurt least because of their protective flood defences.
Lead scientist Dr Svetlana Jevrejeva, from the UK National Oceanographic Centre (NOC), said: “More than 600 million people live in low-elevation coastal areas, less than 10 metres above sea level.
“In a warming climate, global sea level will rise due to melting of land-based glaciers and ice sheets, and from the thermal expansion of ocean waters. So, sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of our warming climate.”
A temperature rise of 1.5C by 2100 would see mid-range sea levels rise by 0.52 metres (1.7ft), she said.
But if the 2C target was missed, median sea levels could rise by 0.86m (2.8ft) or even 1.8m (5.9ft).
“If warming is not mitigated … the global annual flood costs without adaptation will increase to 14 trillion dollars per year for a median sea level rise of 0.86m, and up to 27 trillion dollars per year for 1.8m,” Dr Jevrejeva added. “This would account for 2.8% of global GDP (gross domestic product) in 2100.
“These extreme sea levels will have a negative effect on the economies of developing coastal nations, and the habitability of low-lying coastlines.
“Small, low-lying island nations such as the Maldives will be very easily affected, and the pressures on their natural resources and environmental will become even greater.”
The findings are reported in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
