IT could be 2024/2025 before tourism revenues in the north get back to their 2019 peak, when the industry hit the landmark £1 billion pound mark, according to Tourism NI chief executive John McGrillen.
In the short term, when restrictions for the industry are relaxed under terms laid out in the latest five-step plan published by the Executive, all of local tourism's eggs are likely to go in the staycation basket.
And that means rivalry with tourism promoted the Republic to attract indigenous visitors will be significantly cranked up.
Speaking to the Irish News, Mr McGrillen has talked of the pain endured by the decimated tourism sector in grip of the pandemic, yet insists a desire for near-home travel still persists and that there is the prospects of a full recovery in three or four years.
But in the face of ongoing uncertainty and reduced discretionary spending, he says would-be travellers are demanding better value, choice and increased flexibility and transparency.
“Right now, it's about rebuilding confidence, but we have the capacity to do that, and do it at home,” he said.
“And our tourism industry of the future will look wholly different to the industry of the past. People are becoming much more environmentally aware, and sustainability will play a bigger role in everything we do.
“There will be an increasing focus on the benefits tourism can bring to local communities as opposed to just looking at pure people and spending numbers.
“People will want less crowded spaces, and Northern Ireland is well positioned for that. So if we can get ourselves through the next 12 months, a bright future genuinely awaits.
And looking to the next decade, we need is to develop new product, attractions and activities that will appeal meet the needs of the visitor of the future. They'll be very different that those of the past I imagine.”
Mr McGrillen says he also believes that the more people he can convince to take a holiday at home, the more jobs can be saved.
“We want people to go out and enjoy themselves, absolutely. We can't expect them to be altruistic, but by taking a holiday at home, you can be having a really positive impact not just on that place, but on the people who work there and their families. That's an important message.”
While Northern Ireland may not be considered a staycation destination by people in the rest of the UK due to the need for a ferry or flight, it is considered a good value destination particularly by holidaymakers from the Republic.
He added: “Yes, the level of competition between both our regions will definitely crank up over next two or three years. The Republic will see a huge gap in terms of the lack of visitors from the US and Europe, so they will be battling to secure as much island of Ireland business as possible.
“We know Failte Ireland's budgets are being doubled to allow them to secure as much business as possible from Ireland, so we've got to counter that.”
Tourism NI's annual budget is less than £20 million, about a 10th that of their neighbour, and Mr McGrillen says it about "spending wisely".
“We cant afford to have blanket campaigns running all year round, so need to make sure we utilise our resources as and when we are able to deliver bookings.
“But with unspent money from the current year, we've been developing and shooting ad campaigns, which are in the can, ready to go.”
In its latest edition of its Tourism 360° publication, Tourism Ireland has set out its "Travel Trends?Outlook: 2021 and Beyond" paper, which highlights the significant evolving global trends that will influence travel and tourism in the months ahead.
Mr McGrillien adds: “It’s clear Covid-19 has inherently?changed the expectations and behaviours of consumers and the travel industry.
“But as the roll-out of vaccines begins to reshape the outlook for travel, navigating the implications of a post-Covid world will be crucial to supporting the recovery of Northern Ireland’s tourism industry and rebuild our reputation as an internationally competitive destination.”
