SOMEONE commented to me before heading off on their Christmas break that 2019 was ‘a year and a half’, and that is certainly how it feels looking back. There were plenty of tectonic shifts in the political landscape and, of course, these changes tend to have a ripple effect on the business community, household confidence and the wider economy.
There is no doubt that Northern Ireland businesses are resilient; they tend to put their heads down and get on with running their day to day operations. In 2019 we saw not one, but two cliff-edge no-deal deadlines come and go. But for now, companies still have full access to their markets and that should continue to be the case right up to December 2020.
Long-term macroeconomic and political stability are conducive to economic performance and therefore local firms are keen to see an end to the uncertainty that has prevailed since the June 2016 referendum. With a Conservative majority in Westminster and the withdrawal agreement back in Parliament, we expect that 2020 will be dominated by discussions on the future trading relations with the European Union.
How those negotiations play out remains to be seen; but the CBI has been very clear, the government must secure an ambitious deal that supports all sectors of the economy and a no-deal Brexit must come off the table. The time frame for getting a trade deal may be ambitious, but business is ready to step up and support government - ensuring that any future trading arrangements will work for all UK regions, for business and local communities.
While Brussels and Westminster will have a huge influence on our economic performance going forward; there is also plenty to be done at the local level. CBI’s local policy work extends well beyond Brexit and while we will be actively working to ensure that the local economy has full access to trade north-south and east-west; we cannot take our eye off other domestic issues in 2020.
The restoration of the NI Executive will help enormously with moving local policy forward in areas such as: infrastructure, energy, education and skills, raising innovation and export levels. Here is a glimpse of what CBI will be looking to achieve in two of those key areas next year:
:: Infrastructure - The NI Audit Office report last week highlighted the problems associated with the delivery of large public infrastructure projects in Northern Ireland. Many projects have run significantly over in terms of planning permission, funding and delivery. The CBI’s infrastructure working group made up of CEOs from local businesses will work with policy makers (and hopefully a new Executive) in 2020 to ensure that the necessary reforms for efficient infrastructure delivery are implemented. The NIAO report has also served to highlight the scale of the challenge for Northern Ireland in terms of funding for infrastructure. Like many things in life, we get what we pay for – and so a public debate around our vision for local infrastructure and how we fund it in the short, medium and long-term will be needed.
:: People and Skills - In 2019, the CBI did an enormous amount of work producing evidence-based reports on the need for international workers and why the £30,000 salary threshold for work visas will not suit the local economy. In January 2020, we will publish a full action plan for balancing the demand for digital skills with an appropriate supply pipeline. There is plenty more to be done in this area for all sectors and we need to ensure a level playing field for companies across the island when it comes to the supply of labour. The CBI will also be addressing the urgent need to reform the Apprenticeship Levy and improve our apprenticeship schemes for the next generation.
Finally, as another year unfolds it is important to note that while 2019 may have been very challenging for business, there are also some very good economic stories from the last 12 months to tell. We had the Open in July which brought a very healthy financial boost to both the local economy and the fantastic Shane Lowry – we are all huge fans! Tourism numbers for Northern Ireland remained strong and we also excelled in our renewable electricity target, with 44 per cent of local electricity coming from renewable sources.
In my job I also get to see the positive developments that don’t always hit the headlines. I get to chat to the companies such as Creagh Concrete in Toomebridge with their fantastic new offices and brilliant order book for 2020. I’m looking forward to seeing the completion of Hyster Yale’s new 60,000 sq ft assembly line in Craigavon which will be opened next March, and I get to chat with companies like Kainos who were in 2019 promoted to the FTSE 250.
So, let’s hope 2020 will provide a much more stable economic and political environment for local business so that we can all hear more of the encouraging stories, put the uncertainty behind us and work on making the new post-Brexit environment work for Northern Ireland business and all citizens.
:: Angela McGowan is director of CBI Northern Ireland. Follow her at @angela_mcgowan
