ECONOMIC activity in Northern Ireland grew by a modest 0.3 per cent between January and March - its sixth successive quarter of growth - and by 1.5 per cent over the year, slower over both time frames than the UK as a whole, according to the latest NI Composite Economic Index.
But the economy still languishes well below its 2007 high.
And although employment is at a record high, less than three-quarters of the lost private sector output during the recession has been recovered, with private output still 4.1 per cent below where it was in that peak 12 years ago.
This subdued rate of growth was largely due to manufacturers stockpiling ahead of the initial March 29 Brexit date, and quarter two is likely to be much weaker, according to Ulster Bank chief economist Richard Ramsey.
He said: "The local economy and private sector started 2019 in expansion mode, but if current rates of growth continued, it would still take until 2022 for Northern Ireland to see a return to its pre-recession output.
"But is uninterrupted growth over this period likely? Maintaining growth will be a challenge, because business conditions at home and abroad have deteriorated markedly since the first quarter.
"Indeed the latest Ulster Bank PMI signalled a contraction in private sector output in Northern Ireland. In addition, the potential for a no-deal Brexit would almost certainly derail growth going forward."
A surge in house building and infrastructure projects boosted the construction sector’s growth rate to a reasonably healthy 7.7 per cent year on year, based on activity in Northern Ireland only.
Robert Gibson, director at business advisory firm Grant Thornton in Belfast, said: “The fact output in construction sector increased in the first quarter of the year, both in relation to the previous three months, and compared to the same period in 2018, is positive.
“Housing output, which is still considerably lower than historic levels, is anticipated to continue growing for some time with ground due to be broken on a number of key sites across Northern Ireland over the coming months.
“But growth in other sectors is subdued, and while activity has been high over recent years, particularly in the building of new hotels and office accommodation, there are concerns that the future pipeline is not as strong."
He added: “Those in the industry believe that now makes the restoration of the Stormont Executive an absolute imperative to allow planning decisions on several major projects currently in limbo, to be made.”
