Business

Number crunchers concern at damaging impact of Stormont stand-off and Brexit

ONLY one in 10 business leaders in Northern Ireland say they support a no deal Brexit, a survey of nearly 400 has revealed.

The study showed strong support for the UK remaining part of the European Union, with 48 per cent backing revoking Article 50 and a further 29 per cent calling for a second EU referendum.

And as if the politicians haven't already got the message time and again, more than half those quizzed on behalf of Chartered Accountants Ulster Society believe the lack of a Stormont Assembly and Brexit are cited as major negative factors in the local economy either contracting or stagnating.

The vast majority (93 per cent) of Ulster Society members felt the lack of a functioning Executive will have a negative effect on the local economy in the year ahead.

More than a third (35 per cent) believe the local economy is stagnant and 21 per cent feel it's contracting (by contrast 42 per cent felt it was growing), but only 11 per cent feel that the local economy is growing “strongly or moderately”, compared with 46 per cent last year.

The survey also suggests that the number of local businesses in financial distress is increasing, with 44 per cent now in that perilous state (up from 28 per cent in the 2018 survey and 16 per cent in 2017).

A majority of local respondents (61 per cent) still feel Northern Ireland can benefit from the devolution of corporation tax powers and the ability to set a lower corporation tax rate - but 60 per cent fear it will never happen.

Richard Gillan, chair of Chartered Accountants Ulster Society, said: “Our members feel that we've taken a considerable step backwards in the last year.

“Concerns about the democratic deficit in Northern Ireland and the uncertainty over Brexit have not been addressed, and the longer these go on, the more difficult it is for local business to contribute to growth, jobs and a better quality of life.

“It's vital that the Executive is restored as soon as possible. The impasse is leading to stagnation and is affecting business investment and the provision of public services."

He added: “Our politicians need to know that the lack of day to day decision making cannot go on. It's time for them to come together to create a clear vision and a stimulus package which can provide a step change not just for the local economy, but for education and healthcare provision.

“It's time for political stability. It's time to fund local infrastructure and drive forward capital spending projects. It's time to invest in young people. It's time to reform health care. It's time to introduce a new private sector economic stimulus package and to provide a clear economic plan for the decade ahead.

“Our members span every sector of business life in Northern Ireland and represent a wealth of expertise, experience and ability. If the political will exists and agreement can be found, we stand ready to assist in any way we can to help that vision for Northern Ireland become a reality.”

Summary of key findings:

:: 42 per cent felt that the economy was growing; 35 per cent of local chartered accountants feel that the local economy is stagnant; 21 per cent believe that the economy is contracting

:: 93 per cent feel that the lack of a functioning Executive would have a ‘negative’ or ‘very negative’ effect on the local economy in the year ahead.

:: 94 per cent feel that the lack of a functioning Executive is having a ‘negative’ or ‘very negative’ effect on the provision of public services.

:: 51 per cent feel the outlook for the north's economy in the year ahead is ‘poor’ or ‘very poor’; 40 per cent feel the outlook is ‘fair’; 9 per cent say ‘good’ or ‘very good’

:: 44 per cent feel that the number of businesses in financial distress in Northern Ireland is increasing. 40 per cent feel it is unchanged; 10 per cent feel it is falling.

:: 10 per cent of those surveyed would support the UK leaving the EU with ‘no deal’. 48 per cent support revoking Article 50, stopping the process of leaving the EU. 29 per cent support a second EU Referendum

:: 59 per cent say that Brexit has negatively impacted investment plans within their organisation.

:: 48 per cent said that their organisation was currently experiencing skills shortages (up from 39 per cent in 2018)

:: 61 per cent believe that powers to set a lower corporation tax rate would be beneficial for Northern Ireland. 29 per cent say that it would not.