NI to account for less than 2 per cent of UK GDP by 2022

Northern Ireland is set to provide just 1.9 per cent of the UK's GDP in 2022 according to analysis from TUC
Gareth McKeown

Northern Ireland is set to account for less than two per cent of the UK economy by 2022 according to the latest analysis.

If existing trends continue it is expected that the contribution from the north will continue on a downward spiral according to projections from the Trade Union Congress (TUC).

In 1995 Northern Ireland accounted for 2.3 per cent of the UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product). This fell to 2.1 per cent in 2015 and is project to go under two per cent (1.9) in 2022 according to the projections.

The decrease could be partly accounted for by the political impasse at Stormont and uncertainty over a proposed reduction in corporation tax to 12.5 per cent.

That move had been scheduled for implementation in April 2018, but early indications are this deadline will now be missed.

The TUC analysis projects how the regions and nations of the UK will grow over the course of the next parliament if existing trends continue and is part of a series of election warnings, which show what the British economy will look like in 2022 if current trends continue unchecked.

According to the estimations London and the south east will account for two-fifths of the UK economy by 2022, a rise of 2.5 percentage points from 2015. In 1997 London and the south east accounted for a third of the UK economy.

If current patterns continue the most significant falls in the share of the economy over the next parliament will be in Yorkshire, the north west of England and Scotland.

The TUC says that a comprehensive industrial strategy is essential for rebalancing the economy, and for bringing strong growth and decent jobs to all parts of the UK.

General secretary Frances O'Grady said the analysis showed too many people are missing out on the chance of a decent job, because of where they live.

“That's not sustainable, and it's why more than ever we need an industrial strategy that delivers good jobs where they're needed most.

“Britain needs great jobs – and all the political parties must explain in their manifestos how they will deliver growth in every corner of the country, not just the capital," she said.

The TUC analysis was published ahead of official GDP figures for the first quarter of 2017.


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