Business

Contracting public sector holds back Northern Ireland's economic growth

The north's economy grew by nearly 1 per cent in 2015 according to latest figures
The north's economy grew by nearly 1 per cent in 2015 according to latest figures The north's economy grew by nearly 1 per cent in 2015 according to latest figures

PRIVATE sector output in Northern Ireland grew at it fastest rate in nine years in 2005 - but economic growth was stymied by a contracting public sector.

According to the latest Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index, the north's economy grew by 0.9 per cent over the year.

This was boosted by a 2 per cent spurt in the private sector, but public sector output fell 2.4 per cent.

Leading economist Dr Esmond Birnie said any growth was "good news" but noted the north's recovery was still well behind that of the UK overall.

The services sector was the big mover in the year, contributing to half of the total growth in private output. The production and construction sectors also grew.

Although the index is not directly comparable to UK GDP, it still suggests growth is much slower than the national average, measured at 2.1 per cent over the year.

And while GDP has grown in each of the last 12 quarters, the north's index was only increased in eight of the 12.

It is an improving picture however with growth in Northern Ireland measured at 1.4 per cent in 2014 and 0.7 per cent in 2013.

Dr Birnie, chief economist with PwC in the north said: "The index shows there has been economic growth so that is good news, the recovery continues.

"But whereas the national official figures show overall GDP grew by more than 2 per cent, the Northern Ireland index is at 0.9 per cent so more than a full percentage point down.

"It shows that we are still lagging behind the UK."

And he said it was a trend that appeared set to continue.

"The figures are affected by a contracting public sector with the voluntary exit scheme open and with fewer staff, obviously output decreases.

"And we now know from last month's budget that austerity is now set to continue for another four years."

Ulster Bank economist Richard Ramsey described the growth rate as "rather pedestrian" and concealing contrasting fortunes between the public and private sectors.

He added: "It's worth noting that 2015’s private sector rate of growth was still less than half the rate that occurred in 2006. Despite the ongoing recovery it is worth putting this into perspective. The private sector has still only recouped 37 per cent of the output it has lost during the recession.

"If it were assumed that the 2015 fourth quarter growth rate was to continue going forward, private sector output would not return to its pre-downturn peak in 2007 until quarter one 2019, so this could be referred to as a lost decade."

Meanwhile, yesterday also saw the publication of the Northern Ireland Construction Bulletin for the fourth quarter of 2015.

The data only relates to work carried out in the north and found output fell by 1.7 per cent over the three months - but was 3 per cent higher than the same period in 2014.

The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra) which compiled the figures said the fall in the overall output was accounted for by a 3.2 per cent decrease in new work which was offset by a 2.5 per cent increase in repair and maintenance output.

All the sub-sectors of construction experienced a decrease over the quarter with Infrastructure output falling the most by 7 per cent.