Business

Shell bid for BG Group 'a good fit'

THIS time a year ago, oil prices stood at around $107 a barrel, compared with a price of around $59 a barrel now.

The past year has seen a dramatic reverse in the price of oil, which has slowly and only partly filtered through to both heating oil and petrol.

In the most dramatic response to the slide in the crude oil price yet, last week saw a bid from oil giant Royal Dutch Shell for BG Group (formerly British Gas). This is Shell's largest deal in more than a decade and aims to extend its dominance of the global natural gas industry.

The deal itself, worth £47 billion, looks to be a good fit: it will increase Shell's oil and gas reserves by a quarter and its production by 20 per cent and it will mean that the group will become the largest foreign oil company in Brazil.

Analysts have estimated that the combined group would produce more oil and gas than ExxonMobil by 2018, which is to date the largest non-state oil group.

The actual terms of the deal are that Shell will pay BG shareholders 383p in cash plus 0.4454 B shares in Shell, making 1350p per share.

It is a premium to the share price of about 50 per cent and there are inevitably some claims that Shell is overpaying.

Speculation about the dividend is also rife.

The BG chief executive has only been in place since February and was recruited to oversee a turnaround at the company rather

than a takeover.

The real question now is whether a wave of acquisitions will be unleashed in the sector. The last time similar conditions existed (in 1998) there was a whole series of megadeals, creating the big companies that dominate the market today.

Overall, there is further scope for changes in the oil industry as there is little doubt the fall in the oil price has opened up opportunities, but it seems unlikely that we will see a series of mega-deals.

* Cathy Dixon is a director at the Belfast office of Cunningham Coates Stockbrokers, which is a trading name of Smith & Williamson Investment Management (SWIM). This article does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell investments and the value of any shares may fall as well as rise. Investments carry risk and investors may not receive back the amount invested. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily of SWIM.